The results of the 2024 United States Elections are now in and Donald Trump has surpassed the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed to secure victory and will become the 47th President of the United States. In a night that might have surprised many, Trump swept almost all the key battleground states and even secured the popular vote – becoming the first Republican to do so since George W. Bush in 2004. The Republican Party also secured a majority in the Senate with control of the incredibly competitive House of Representatives still hanging in the balance. Regardless, the results have been nothing short of a disaster for the Democratic Party. There are many factors as to why the voters have gone this direction, the most important being widespread voter dissatisfaction especially in an unpopular Biden administration. When more than 2/3s of voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country and feel it is heading in the wrong direction, the incumbent party candidate is always going to face an uphill battle, and Harris – as the sitting Vice President – clearly did not manage to separate herself from the administration. Trump’s victory is not really unexpected, but the margins by which he won are to an extent stunning. So what happens now, post-election?
While Trump managed to somewhat moderate and surround himself with fairly qualified Cabinet members during his first term, there’s less inclination that he will do the same this time. Depending on the outcome in the House and the final tally in the Senate, Trump may have a broad mandate to pursue his agenda – at least until the 2026 Midterms. Despite already having a majority however, there are two or three sitting anti-Trump Republican Senators who could complicate things depending on the final senate seats. But perhaps more importantly, what might the future bring for the two parties? The Democrats are waking up to a tough morning, one where Trump has pulled off a remarkable comeback, significantly shifting voter demographics and gathering a new Republican coalition in the process. The Democratic Party faces an urgent reckoning to get itself back on track while the Republican Party can celebrate its victory, for now.
The Future of the Republican Party
In my article last month on the “Veepstakes” and the role of the running mate in the election, I wrote that the running mates may provide a glimpse into the future of politics and the two parties. For Tim Walz, such a future is probably looking fairly distant right now. But with Trump now elected to a second term and thus being term-limited, his Vice President, JD Vance can easily be seen as a potential successor. Trump has managed to gather together a fairly diverse working-class coalition this time, including minority voters. While I very much have my own doubts, whether a second Trump term can remain popular enough to keep this trend through 2028 remains to be seen. There are two potential paths here; either Trump somehow manages this and gives a potential successor (possibly JD Vance) a legitimate shot at winning in 2028, or he remains his usual divisive self and steers the Republican Party towards potential losses in the next elections. At the same time, the reality for the Republicans is that with the exception of Trump himself, MAGA candidates have been losing elections in swing states and often by considerable margins; Doug Mastriano (Pennsylvania) lost in a landslide to Josh Shapiro in 2022, Mark Robinson to Josh Stein in North Carolina this year, and Kari Lake is likely about to lose her second race in Arizona. If that trend continues and no adequate (MAGA) successor for 2028 is found, the Republicans will face a potential post-Trump identity crisis. For the Democratic Party however, that identity crisis is now.
Can the Democrats Reinvent Themselves?
The election results clearly capture a stunning failure for the Democrats, and there needs to be an urgent reckoning within the party if it wants to find a future path that can bring voters back into the fold and lead to electoral victories – it needs to reinvent itself. The Democrats too stand at a crossroad; either you move further to the left or you take a sharp turn back towards the middle. Staying the course is simply not an option after such a brutal and embarrassing election result. And at a time where an increasing plurality of Americans (42% according to last night’s NBC exit polls) consider themselves more “moderate” than “liberal” (24%) or “conservative” (34%), the choice couldn’t be more clear. To top it off, almost half of voters found Harris’ views to be “too extreme”, highlighting how a move towards the center is most likely the best choice going forward both in terms of electoral strategy but also for the sake of the country. Depending on how the next four years will go, a proper reinvention could provide a unique opportunity for the Democratic Party to capture moderate independents and maybe even Republicans who might grow increasingly frustrated with Trump. Whether the party will actually correct course and how it may do so is a different question entirely however.
It would not be surprising to see a clash between the party’s progressive/left leaning wing and the more moderate and centrist sides as it seeks to establish its new role in politics. Who comes out on top if any is hard to tell, but if the Democrats want to have any realistic shot of bouncing back it needs to be towards the middle. Perhaps, come 2026, we will see a surge in so-called “Blue Dog Coalition” and “New Democrat Coalition” members of congress, caucuses which are primarily made up of moderate and centrist, or even conservative, Democratic lawmakers. Ideally, the party needs to shed its clinging to identity politics and at times borderline anti-American defeatism in favor of an optimistic platform that embraces core values of liberty, freedom and justice. Then again, while I would like to see this, no alternative platform would have likely been able to push the Democrats over the finish line yesterday – winning an election on the back of such an unpopular administration and historically negative voter sentiments may have simply been too much of an insurmountable task for anyone – which is why the need for reinvention is crucial ahead of 2028. And while Trump remains the face of the Republican Party, as he has been since 2016, the Democrats could also benefit from some new faces to lead the party.
Future Faces of the Democratic Party
Harris did not manage to win Pennsylvania as Biden did, but exit polling suggested that the incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro continues to boast high approval ratings of 58% (with a +27% net approval). Ironically enough, being snubbed for Harris’ vice presidential pick in favor of Tim Walz may have been a small blessing in disguise. Along with his more moderate and bipartisan tendencies, he is now positioned extremely well as a potential future face of the Democratic Party and has an edge for a potential Presidential campaign in 2028. Other prominent figures are sure to be Governors Gavin Newsom (California) and Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), both of whom are more towards the progressive side however. Any other Democrat who has done well in battleground states, such as Josh Stein in North Carolina, could also be wisely utilized by the Democrats as it seeks to reinvent itself.
While the situation may look bleak for the Democrats today, and by all accounts it is bleak, this also presents opportunity. An opportunity to re-evaluate not only its electoral strategies but also to do some soul searching and reinvent the party and its ideals. An opportunity to move the party in a more reasonable and palatable direction, which in turn could move American politics overall to a more productive age. Likewise, the Republican Party may find themselves in a similar situation when the Trump chapter closes in four years time.
