The ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that was signed in January has collapsed. Since the collapse in March, Israel has restarted its devastating bombing campaigns in Gaza that indiscriminately target civilians by bombing schools, hospitals and even refugee tents. In just a couple of days, over 700 civilians have been killed with even more injured, a number that will only increase over time.
For many Palestinian families, this was the worst-case scenario. It shows that Israel was never serious about peace and that the war will most likely continue with no end in sight. The negotiations between Israel and Hamas were supposed to enter the second phase, during which a long-term peace was expected to be accepted by both parties. The negotiations were instead delayed, and eventually sabotaged by the Israeli side. The question that then arises is, why did the Israeli leadership do this and what could be gained from it?
One seemingly major reason for abandoning the peace talks is that the internal political landscape in Israel is simply too volatile for peace. This may sound strange but is reflected in the sentiments of the Israeli prime minister, Netanyahu, and his coalition partners. The hardliners in the government are opposed to a settled peace and instead want to completely take over Gaza, even bringing in Israelis to settle the enclave. If these demands are not met, the partners have threatened to leave Netanyahu’s coalition, effectively dissolving the government. The same voices that call for annexing Gaza also have plans for its Palestinian population. Not long ago, the Israeli government approved a plan that would facilitate the total emigration of Palestinians out of the strip, something which would amount to ethnic cleansing. A peace deal between Israel and Hamas would effectively put an end to these plans.
The resumption of the war also serves Netanyahu politically since it distracts from the numerous scandals that have been plaguing him,including an ongoing corruption case still being decided in court. Netanyahu has also recently attempted to fire the head of the Shin Bet, the national intelligence agency. The Israeli Supreme Court has blocked this move, calling it politically motivated. These instances of power misuse have led to protests erupting in the country, something which could threaten the stability of Netanyahu’s rule.
An even bigger reason for continuing the war has to do with the election of Trump as president of the United States. Trump has signaled to the Israelis that they have his full support in taking full control over the Gaza strip, even making statements that he would like to build and develop housing in the area. This is different from the previous U.S. administrations, which usually restricted the Israelis from being too extreme in their territorial ambitions. With these restrictions gone, Israel has little to lose from continuing the Gaza war and has even started looking to expand its territory in other places as well. Emboldened by American support, Israeli forces have been invading and occupying areas in southern Syria, establishing military bases and showing little sign of leaving. The Israelis say the reason for this is to create a “security zone” in the area to protect Israel from threats.
Israeli forces were also supposed to leave Lebanese territory they invaded to the north according to the ceasefire signed with Lebanon in November 2024. These forces have yet to leave however, something which is jeopardizing the ceasefire and risks flaring up hostilities again.
Looking at the broader picture, the actions of the Israeli state raise serious concerns with far-reaching implications that stretch beyond the Middle East. What the situation tells us is that essentially, if you have the backing and support of the United States, you can get away with a great deal.
The situation raises questions regarding the validity of international and humanitarian law, when what has been described as a genocide is allowed to continue while the world watches on.
What happens next is clear. If the U.S. continues to offer unconditional support for Israel and its actions, then it is probable that the situation will deteriorate further. Israel will most likely continue its indiscriminate bombing campaign in the Gaza strip while also starting the process of ethnic cleansing in order to occupy and eventually colonize the area. In Syria, it will continue to advance even further while encountering virtually zero military resistance, eventually occupying the areas it seizes. Even in Lebanon, Israel has signaled the intention not to withdraw, something that will eventually start more wars in the future, wars that will hit the civilian population the hardest. The hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflicts in the region have also been severely weakened following Trump’s geopolitical repositioning with Europe. European countries have traditionally acted as intermediaries in disputes between states in Middle East and the U.S., making diplomacy even trickier in this notoriously unstable region. As a result, Israel’s neighbors like Egypt and Jordan might be pushed toward military escalation, putting the entire region at risk of a major war.
Khalil Jezzini
- Khalil Jezzini#molongui-disabled-link
- Khalil Jezzini#molongui-disabled-link
