Mediator or enemy – Oman at a crossroads in the US-Iran conflict

In the US-Iran conflict Oman balances on a difficult edge of its previous past of neutrality and mediation with the country’s closing to Iran through a possible agreement regarding the Hormuz straight. The agreement promises economic advantages for Oman but risks the country becoming an enemy of the US – putting Oman at a precarious crossroads. 

How one defines the Middle East depends, as with everything, on who you ask. If you ask me, the Middle East is (in simple terms) like one big family. There are the known powerhouse parents, the rich auntie or uncle, the grandparents and the middle child. Everything depends on how you look at it. The Middle East family is messy, toxic, filled with arguments and some family members can’t be in the same room. And at the same time, it’s also characterized by hospitality, culture and feeding you with massive amounts of food no matter how many times you say no – as a way of showing love and kindness. One could say the powerhouse parents are the UAE and Saudi Arabia as they are at the forefront  of the oil industry. Oman, meanwhile, might be the great-grandparent, as it earned its independence from Portugal in the 17th century, long before many other Middle Eastern countries. Defining independence by when countries broke free from European rule is itself a western imperialist way of measuring history. In the family, Oman is perhaps better understood as the mediator, the calm in the storm. 

Oman is an outlier in the Middle East. While many countries are dealing with conflicts and war, Oman has the more stable ground. Oman is one of the few countries whose economy grew this year in comparison to many countries facing economic decline in the Middle East. There are many signs that Oman is an up-and-coming country, even if it is often overlooked and not mentioned in the news. Oman has picked up a tactic similar to Switzerland’s; believing neutrality and mediatorship is the winner in the long run. This is displayed through Oman being a key player in multiple conflicts in the Middle East. Particularly when it involves Houthis active in Oman’s neighbouring country Yemen. The Houthis are a military-political group which originated in Yemen around 40 years ago with the aim to fight corruption. The Houthis are now largely defined as a terrorist group as they are committing terrorist attacks in the region and stopping humanitarian aid from reaching the Yemeni people. As the conflict between the regime and the group escalated a civil war broke out after Yemen’s regime was overthrown by the Houthis. Thus launching Yemen into a severe humanitarian crisis. This of course affects Oman, making the nation a prime actor in the crisis and ongoing conflict. Sharing a border with Yemen creates a security issue risking the conflict to spill over the border onto Omani territory, causing Oman to strengthen its security by the border. As Oman got involved with the conflict it employed a non-military approach and tries to this day to keep diplomatic relations regardless of the political party or regime. This has allowed Oman to create strong diplomatic bonds with national, regional and global parties. This allows for meetings with the Houthis and Saudi Arabia to occur in Oman, as a neutral but safe ground for the involved parties.

With this past example, it should come as no surprise that Oman is an active mediating member in the US-Iran war as the strait of Hormuz is also crucial for Oman and its security – once again putting Oman in the line of fire of political disruption. Throughout the conflict Oman has maintained its diplomatic relations between both the US and Iran. Specifically holding close relations with Iran. But that begs the question of how long and how far can Oman take its neutrality? While navigating the complex path of mediating in an active global conflict, Oman seems to have side-stepped its past path of neutrality instead stepping into a storm of criticism. To many’s surprise, the Omani foreign minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi expressed criticism towards the US. Accusing the US of losing control of their own foreign policy but also failing to achieve their set goals – waving a warning finger to the US that the country may end up in an endless loop of ongoing wars. Oman also accused Israel, a close U.S. ally, of wanting to overthrow the islamic governance of the Middle East. All these political statements were also linked with Oman prioritizing an agreement between Oman and Iran regarding the Hormuz strait. The agreement between Iran and Oman involves multiple factors, with an important one being the possibility of charging fees for ships traveling through the strait. Iran is not only accused of stalling the current flow of the imports and exports but also of attacks against ships. In July, 2026, a boat from a Norwegian shipping company was attacked, showcasing the global scale of the conflict. As Oman and Iran are getting closer to closing a deal regarding the strait, President Trump is growing more impatient. In May 2026, Trump made his first threat of bombing Oman if the country doesn’t “behave like everyone else”. Then in August 2026 a second threat was made as Oman and Iran were closing in on solidifying a joint deal concerning the Hormuz Strait. In response to this Donald Trump said:

Right now it seems like Oman has no other option than to get involved in the conflict. One of the reasons being the importance of the Strait of Hormuz in the international maritime industry. Oman has a long standing maritime history and maritime industry is crucial for Oman’s economy. Export and import through the strait allows economical advantages for Oman as well as allowing an international hold in economics and politics. 

This causes Oman to balance on the edge of neutrality or possibly facing the wrath of the US, Iran or other countries in the Middle East if Oman does not maintain some control of the future of the strait of Hormuz. 

As Oman continues to be a key partner in mediation in the US-Iran conflict, it now faces the challenge of keeping its neutrality and protecting its own assets. Losing control of the Hormuz strait may mean losing control of its own economic and political advantages, thus showcasing why Oman wants to remain as a key player despite possibly hurting other countries surrounding the Hormuz strait. If tolls or fees are implemented then Oman may keep Iran relations on the upside and as well gain economical and political advantages. However this could be frowned upon as it would mean Oman would be taking advantage of the conflict for its own gain. Can Oman navigate this challenging road ahead and keep some kind of neutrality while still emerging a winner? Could Oman lead the Middle East towards a more stable future and create a new name for the Middle East? Only time will tell whether Oman truly becomes the Switzerland of the Middle East, with neutrality in politics and a blooming economy, or if Oman will become an enemy of the US.